The March 2015 Visa Bulletin is up and we see some major developments with the employment based categories. Here is the latest in the cut-off date movement along with our analysis and projection of what to expect in the coming months:
EB-3 Worldwide, Mexico and the Philippines. The EB-3 cut-off dates for Worldwide, Mexico, and Philippines are advancing to June 1, 2014. This is a very significant development because, practically speaking, the EB-2 category now no longer holds advantage over EB-3 in terms of processing time. It currently takes at least 8-12 months for the government to process a permanent residence case. The visa bulletin wait period for the EB-3 category is now less than government administrative processing time. In other words, an EB-3 case will no longer be on the visa wait list at the time the government has completed review and is ready to adjudicate it. In sum, the wait time to obtain a permanent residence in the EB-3 Worldwide, Mexico and the Philippines categories should now depend exclusively on government administrative efficiency and processing speed, and is no longer influenced by visa wait list cut-off date movement.
Additional useful info: The Department of State reports that demand for EB-3 Philippines remains lower than anticipated although a potential increase in EB-3 case filings for Filipino nurses may lead to slow down or even retrogression in this category.
EB-2 India. The other big news is the advancement of the EB-2 India cut-off date by almost 16 months to January 1, 2007 as a direct result of U.S. Department of State’s efforts to stimulate demand in this category. EB-2 India is expected to advance further in April 2015, and should continue to advance throughout this fiscal year at a slower pace and without the typical large forward leap at the end of the year that we are accustomed to seeing in the past. EB-3 to EB-2 category upgrades will probably increase, which may result in a slow-down of this forward movement or even a retrogression in the EB-2 category.
EB-2 and EB-3 China. EB-2 China is advancing more than five months to September 1, 2010. Forward movement in this category is expected to continue for some time. The EB-3 China cut-off date continues to be more than 13 months ahead of EB-2, which encourages applicants to downgrade their cases from EB-3 to EB-2. The Department of State expects another significant advancement for EB-2 China in April, and a priority date hold or retrogression for EB-3. It is not clear when this may happen but we should expect an EB-3 hold or retrogress in the next couple of months if demand in this category continues to increase.
Additional useful info: The U.S. Department of State also reports that demand for the China family-based categories is low, which means that some China family-based numbers are trickling down into the China employment-based categories. Any future increase in the family category demand will likely slow down any forward movement in the employment based categories.
Family-Based Categories—Mexico. While we are not expecting to see the same dramatic changes with the family based category cut-off dates that the employment categories are experiencing, it is worth mentioning that the Mexico categories family categories are advancing. The U.S. Department of State explains that many immigrant visa applicants from Mexico are not responding to the National Visa center’s “Agent of Choice” letters. Such applicants are apparently not yet counted against the immigrant visa quotas. This results in under-reporting and insufficient demand, and is triggering forward movement of the cut-off dates in some Mexico family-based categories.
Additional useful info: The U.S. Department of State speculates that this unusual situation may be caused by people moving without updating their address with the National Visa Center, or simply choosing not to respond to the Agent of Choice letter because their priority dates seem far away. No matter what the reason, the cutoff dates will likely continue to advance slowly but steadily to stimulate demand in the Mexico family based categories.